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21th September 2018-Sterling boosted by stronger retail sales data, although faded to some extent after tough Brexit rhetoric from EU officials.

 
     

Sterling boosted by stronger retail sales data, although faded to some extent after tough Brexit rhetoric from EU officials.

R
isk appetite held firm during Thursday which underpinned global equities and undermined the yen as bond yields also moved higher with US 10-year rates at 4-month highs.

European and commodity currencies overall continued to gain firm support amid hopes for solid global growth conditions while defensive US dollar demand faded.

The Norwegian krone weakened despite the expected rate hike as the Norges Bank lowered the projected rate path slightly.

Sterling was boosted by stronger than expected retail sales data, although support faded to some extent after tough Brexit rhetoric from EU officials.

Precious metals were supported by a weaker US dollar and firm commodity prices.

UK retail sales volumes increased 0.3% for August, compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.1% decline with annual growth at 3.3% from an upwardly-revised 3.8% previously. Sterling moved sharply higher and continued to gain ground ahead of the New York open with 2-month GBP/USD highs near 1.3300 against the fragile dollar while EUR/GBP retreated towards 1.1250.

Markets struggled to digest the high volume of Brexit-related comments from UK and EU officials. There was a general element of caution with Prime Minister May stating that an Irish backstop deal would not be ready in time for October. European Council President Tusk stated that he was a bit more optimistic surrounding the potential for a deal, although he also stated that part of the Chequers deal would not work.

There was generally tough rhetoric from EU leaders and, although Sterling was resilient amid expectations that some form of deal would be secured, there was a fading of short-term optimism. GBP/EUR retreated towards 1.1250. GBP/USD did recover from 1.3230 but hit resistance above 1.3270 with a slightly more defensive tone on Friday amid Brexit nerves.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1256

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3266

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2718

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 149.60

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8181

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9820

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7119

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 18.9602

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.8000

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.5857

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1780

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

08:55 EUR

German Manufacturing PMI (M/M)

55.7

55.9

 
   

09:00 EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite

54.5

54.5

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

-

-2.87B

 
   

14:45 USD

US Manufacturing PMI

-

54.7

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

20th September 2018-2-month GBP/USD highs amid speculation that the Bank of England would need to take a more aggressive policy stance

 
     

2-month GBP/USD highs amid speculation that the Bank of England would need to take a more aggressive policy stance

Risk appetite held firm amid an easing of trade fears. Equities secured net gains and commodity currencies made gains, although with no extension during Thursday.

The dollar was mixed with European currencies unable to take sustained advantage of slightly weaker underlying US demand.

Sterling was subjected to very choppy trading with a reversal of a surge seen after the inflation data amid a more cautious tone surrounding Brexit talks.

Oil prices pushed sharply higher with a test of 2-month highs amid net support from a decline in US inventories.

Sterling dipped lower in early Europe on Wednesday as Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane stated that business concerns about Brexit and uncertainty have picked up sharply over the past few months.

The impact was quickly offset by the latest UK inflation data with the headline consumer inflation rate increasing to a six-month high of 2.7% from 2.5% and above consensus expectations of 2.5%. The core rate also increased to 2.1% from 1.9% previously with the RPI rate also moving higher. Sterling pushed sharply higher following the data with 2-month GBP/USD highs above 1.3200 amid speculation that the Bank of England would need to take a more aggressive policy stance.

The UK currency then dipped sharply ahead of the New York open with a GBP/USD dip to 1.3100 amid reports that Prime Minister May had rejected EU Barnier’s offer on the Irish border.Volatility was sustained by the flurry of rhetoric ahead of the Summit and Sterling was unable to regain momentum amid generally cautious remarks from EU officials.

Initial reports following Wednesday’s dinner suggested that no significant progress had been made amid a tough negotiating stance which dampened Sterling sentiment as GBP/USD settled near 1.3150 while GBP/EUR strengthened to 1.1280 with markets braced for further volatility.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1254

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3157

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2714

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.59

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8118

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9784

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.6994

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.1187

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7168

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6561

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1690

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

08:30 CHF

SNB Interest Rate Decision

-0.75%

-0.75%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Retail Sales (Y/Y)

-

3.50%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (Y/Y)

2.80%

3.70%

 
   

13:30 USD

US Philadelphia Fed. Manufacturing Index

15

11.9

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

19th September 2018-Risk appetite held firm on Tuesday with relief that the fresh round of US-China tariffs was received calmly

 

     

Risk appetite held firm on Tuesday with relief that the fresh round of US-China tariffs was received calmly

Risk appetite held firm on Tuesday with relief that the fresh round of US-China tariffs was received calmly amid relief that rhetoric was restrained.

US bond yields moved higher with 10-year rates at 4-month highs, but equities were resilient with significant gains across all major bourses.

Hopes for Brexit progress underpinned Sterling and Euro sentiment while there was little reaction to an unchanged Bank of Japan monetary policy.

Commodity currencies made significant headway with gold and silver also making net headway as the US dollar was unable to secure sustained support amid doubts surrounding long-term trends.

Political events remained important for Sterling sentiment on Tuesday as Brexit Secretary Raab stated that the UK could see no alternative to the UK Irish border proposals, although the government was open to fresh suggestions. Irish Prime Minister Varadkar stated that negotiations would take place continuously from now on as the Irish border remained a key issue.

UK 10-year gilt yields increased to 3-month highs which underpinned Sterling, although the impact was offset by higher US and German yields. In choppy trading GBP/USD hit further resistance close to 1.3170 and dipped to near 1.3130, although GBP/EUR was unable to hold intra-day gains and retreated to register marginal losses just below 1.1260.

There was only limited reaction to comments from EU’s Barnier that negotiations were now on the home straight. He also commented that a fully operational Irish backstop was required to protect the single market’s integrity, although he was ready to offer improved terms. There was still an element of caution ahead of the Salzburg Summit with Sterling unable to make further headway after GBP/USD hit further resistance around 1.3170 and little change in GBP/EUR with markets also waiting for the latest UK inflation data.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1261

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3158

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2691

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.81

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8157

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9920

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7045

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.4943

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7152

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6953

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1684

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Core CPI (Y/Y)

1.90%

1.90%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK CPI (Y/Y)

2.40%

2.50%

 
   

13:30 USD

US Housing Starts

1.228K

1.168K

 
   

14:00 EUR

ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

18th September 2018-Risk appetite was resilient despite the US announcement of fresh tariffs on imports from China.

 
     

Risk appetite was resilient despite the US announcement of fresh tariffs on imports from China.

Risk appetite was resilient despite the US announcement of fresh tariffs on imports from China. Although equities posted initial losses, there was a sharp reversal with Chinese markets posting significant gains in late trading.

The dollar was unable to gain widespread support despite trade tensions and further net losses within emerging markets while higher global yields undermined yen support.

Sterling continued to attract short covering on Brexit hopes and overall sentiment surrounding European currencies improved with EUR/USD also gaining ground.

Commodity prices were generally weaker with demand concerns undermining crude while gold failed to sustain gains.

The IMF warned on Monday over important negative consequences of any failure to secure a Brexit deal. There was also a high volume of rhetoric surrounding the risks of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, especially with important internal UK political tensions.

There was, however, a general mood of optimism surrounding talks amid reports that the EU was prepared to be more flexible on the Irish border issue. Reports of German and Austrian determination to avoid a ‘no-deal’ Brexit at all costs also underpinned sentiment amid hopes that progress would be made at this week’s Salzburg Summit. In this context there were expectations that pressure from individual EU countries would force EU negotiators to take a more conciliatory tone.

Sterling overall continued to make net gains with 6-week GBP/USD highs near 1.3170 while GBP/EUR also held at its highest level since early August with a push above 1.1250. GBP/USD held above 1.3150 on Tuesday with markets continuing to monitor political developments ahead of Wednesday’s UK inflation data.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1252

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3158

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2652

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.32

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8278

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9953

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7158

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.6465

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7409

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7076

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1695

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

13:30 CAD

Manufacturing Shipments (M/M)

-

1.10%

 
   

23:00 NZD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-

108.6

 
   

23:45 NZD

Current Account (Q/Q)

-1.05B

0.18B

 
   

-

-

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

17th September 2018-Trade fears dominated on Monday amid expectations that additional US tariffs on China would be imposed this week

 

     

Trade fears dominated on Monday amid expectations that additional US tariffs on China would be imposed this week

Despite a miss for headline US retail sales, underlying data held firm. Consumer confidence strengthened and 10-year yields touched 3% which underpinned the dollar.

The Euro was unable to sustain Thursday’s gains with net losses as low yields undermined support, although Brexit hopes limited losses and helped cushion Sterling.

Trade fears dominated on Monday amid expectations that additional US tariffs on China would be imposed this week. Asian equity markets were under pressure, although defensive assets failed to gain strong support.

Oil prices were little changed in choppy trading as markets fretted over demand and supply issues.

On Friday, Governor Carney emphasised that the Bank of England was preparing, including the possibility of a sharp decline in house prices and it was not a prediction. He also stated that uncertainty had dampened wages growth while the bank is prepared for all outcomes. Sterling retreated after reports that the opposition Labour Party would vote against any Brexit deal.

Both UK Brexit Secretary Raab and EU Chief Negotiator Barnier stated that good progress had been made on talks, although Sterling was unable to gain further support as Barnier also stated that there were still substantial differences.

GBP/USD was also subjected to significant profit taking, although it posted notable weekly gains with a close around 1.3070 while GBP/EUR ended close to 5-week highs just above 1.1230. CFTC data recorded only a small decline in the number of short, speculative Sterling shorts, maintaining the potential for a squeeze if the spot price increases.

Visa data suggested August consumer spending remained firm, although the Chambers of Commerce downgraded its 2018 GDP growth forecast. Sterling held steady on Monday with GBP/EUR just over 1.1250 and GBP/USD at 1.3085 amid hopes for Irish border progress.

 

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1240

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3082

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2658

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 146.49

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8272

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9947

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7049

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.5503

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7856

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.8193

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1632

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (M/M

0.20%

-0.30%

 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (Y/Y)

2.00%

2.00%

 
   

13:30 USD

Euro-Zone Core CPI (Y/Y)

1.00%

1.00%

 
   

15:00 USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

23.6

25.6

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

14th September 2018-BOE warned over growing risks to the global growth outlook, especially in emerging markets.

 

     

Risk appetite was underpinned by proposals to hold a fresh round of US-China trade talks

Risk appetite was underpinned by proposals to hold a fresh round of US-China trade talks and equity markets secured net relief despite an underlying lack of conviction.

The dollar drifted lower after weaker than expected producer prices data and there was also a significant recovery in commodity currencies.

Brexit hopes underpinned the Euro and Sterling, although both were held below weekly highs against the US currency with caution ahead of monetary policy meetings.

Oil prices pushed to 1-week highs before a sharp corrective retreat as Brent failed to hold the $80.0 p/b level.

Brexit uncertainty continued to have an important impact during Wednesday amid underlying policy uncertainty. Prime Minister May continued to insist that the Chequers plan was the only way forward as Conservative Brexit rebels proposed alternative Irish border arrangements.

The UK currency secured some relief as rebel Conservative Party MPs stated that they wanted May to remain in office, although there was still under-performed relative to the Euro and commodity currencies. European Commission head Juncker renewed a pledge for close trade and security ties with the UK after Brexit.

GBP/USD found support below 1.3000 and spiked higher after reports that the EU had begun to redraft the Northern Irish border protocol to ease UK concerns. After peaking around 1.3080, GBP/USD faded again as resistance held.

There are no expectations of a Bank of England monetary policy change on Thursday, although the statement’s tone could still be important for sentiment with the UK currency unable to make further gains as GBP/EUR traded above 1.1250.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1211

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3038

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2636

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 145.29

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8142

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9887

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.6962

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.4184

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7673

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7007

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1627

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

07:00 EUR

Germany CPI (Y/Y)

2.00%

2.00%

 
   

12:00 GBP

BOE Interest rate vote 

0-0-9

9-0-0

 
   

12:00 GBP

BOE Rate Decision (M/M)

0.75%

0.75%

 
   

12:45 EUR

ECB Rate Decision

0.00%

0.00%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

13th September 2018-Risk appetite was underpinned by proposals to hold a fresh round of US-China trade talks

 

     

Risk appetite was underpinned by proposals to hold a fresh round of US-China trade talks

Risk appetite was underpinned by proposals to hold a fresh round of US-China trade talks and equity markets secured net relief despite an underlying lack of conviction.

The dollar drifted lower after weaker than expected producer prices data and there was also a significant recovery in commodity currencies.

Brexit hopes underpinned the Euro and Sterling, although both were held below weekly highs against the US currency with caution ahead of monetary policy meetings.

Oil prices pushed to 1-week highs before a sharp corrective retreat as Brent failed to hold the $80.0 p/b level.

Brexit uncertainty continued to have an important impact during Wednesday amid underlying policy uncertainty. Prime Minister May continued to insist that the Chequers plan was the only way forward as Conservative Brexit rebels proposed alternative Irish border arrangements.

The UK currency secured some relief as rebel Conservative Party MPs stated that they wanted May to remain in office, although there was still under-performed relative to the Euro and commodity currencies. European Commission head Juncker renewed a pledge for close trade and security ties with the UK after Brexit.

GBP/USD found support below 1.3000 and spiked higher after reports that the EU had begun to redraft the Northern Irish border protocol to ease UK concerns. After peaking around 1.3080, GBP/USD faded again as resistance held.

There are no expectations of a Bank of England monetary policy change on Thursday, although the statement’s tone could still be important for sentiment with the UK currency unable to make further gains as GBP/EUR traded above 1.1250.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1211

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3038

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2636

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 145.29

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8142

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9887

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.6962

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.4184

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7673

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7007

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1627

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

07:00 EUR

Germany CPI (Y/Y)

2.00%

2.00%

 
   

12:00 GBP

BOE Interest rate vote 

0-0-9

9-0-0

 
   

12:00 GBP

BOE Rate Decision (M/M)

0.75%

0.75%

 
   

12:45 EUR

ECB Rate Decision

0.00%

0.00%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

12th September 2018-Notably choppy Sterling trading amid reports of plots to oust Prime Minister May and plans to abandon the Chequers agreement

 

     

Notably choppy Sterling trading amid reports of plots to oust Prime Minister May and plans to abandon the Chequers agreement

The Euro and Sterling were unable to sustain gains on Wednesday with notably choppy Sterling trading amid on-going Brexit uncertainty while the US dollar made slight net gains.

The Canadian dollar advanced amid hopes for Canadian concessions and progress towards a deal in NAFTA talks with the US.

Oil prices moved sharply higher to a 1-week peak amid Iranian supply concerns.

Global equity markets were mixed with Asian markets overall retreating to 14-month lows amid trade and financial unease.

UK unemployment held at 4.0% according to the latest UK data while there was a smaller than expected increase of 8,700 in the claimant count, although there was a smaller than expected increase in employment. The main focus was on average earnings with the headline annual increase strengthening to 2.6% from 2.4% while the underlying rate strengthened to 2.9% from 2.7%. GBP/USD advanced to fresh 5-week highs near 1.3080 before a rapid and unexplained slide.

Political concerns continued to have an important impact with Sterling also dipping after reports that the EU had warned the UK over too much optimism on breaking their red lines. In contrast, Irish Prime Minister Varadkar reiterated that a Brexit deal may be achievable within weeks.

Chancellor Hammond stated that Bank of England Governor Carney had agreed to extend his term until the beginning of 2020 and was also committed to doing whatever he can to promote a successful Brexit.

Sterling was unsettled to some extent by Brexit rumours during the Asian session on Wednesday with reports of plots to oust Prime Minister May and plans to abandon the Chequers agreement if it is rejected by the EU. Overall, the UK currency drifted lower, but GBP/USD found support near 1.3000 while GBP/EUR settled just above 1.1200 as political tensions remained elevated.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1221

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3005

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2668

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 145.03

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8308

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9964

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.6992

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.6196

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.8365

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7823

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1583

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (Y/Y)

-

2.50%

 
   

13:30 USD

US PPI (Y/Y)

3.20%

3.30%

 
   

14:30 USD

FOMC Member J. Bullard Speaks

-

-

 
   

19:00 USD

US Federal Reserve's Beige Book

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

11th September 2018-Sterling was underpinned by solid GDP data and then boosted again by short covering on positive EU Brexit rhetoric

 
     

Sterling was underpinned by solid GDP data and then boosted again by short covering on positive EU Brexit rhetoric

Sterling was underpinned by solid GDP data and then boosted again by short covering on positive EU Brexit rhetoric from EU’s Barnier with GBP/USD at 5-week highs.

Increased confidence in Italy helped underpin Euro sentiment and reverse initial EUR/USD losses with Brexit hopes also supporting the single currency as the dollar index faded.

The Swiss franc retreated sharply as defensive support faded.

Global equity markets overall made net gains, although Chinese and Hong Kong markets lost ground amid negative sentiment.

Precious metals made only very limited headway despite US losses.

UK industrial production data was below consensus forecasts with a 0.1% increase for July while manufacturing output declined 0.2% compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.2% gain. In contrast, the monthly GDP data recorded growth of 0.3% compared with expectations of a 0.2% gain with a 3-month increase of 0.6%, the strongest rate since August 2017.

Construction output was stronger than consensus forecasts while the trade deficit narrowed to £10.0bn from a downwardly-revised £10.7bn the previous month. The NIESR recorded 0.6% GDP growth in the 3 months to July.

Sterling edged higher after the GDP data, although the main impetus for gains was again optimistic Brexit talk. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier stated that a deal was realistic within the next 6-8 weeks and GBP/USD spiked to 5-week highs just above 1.3050 while GBP/EUR rallied to 1-month highs above 1.1220.

There were also reports that the EU would call an extraordinary Summit for November. GBP/USD held firm near 1.3050 on Tuesday while GBP/EUR consolidated near 1.1220 amid reports that Conservative Party Brexit supports had failed to reach agreement on an alternative plan.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1226

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3051

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2731

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 145.48

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8329

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9964

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7147

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.6736

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.9089

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7823

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1626

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Average Earning Including Bonus

2.50%

2.40%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Claimant Count Change (M/M)

-

6.2K

 
   

10:00 EUR

German ZEW Survey (M/M)

-

-13.7

 
   

15:00 USD

US JOLTs Job Openings

6.646M

6.662M

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

10th September 2018-Sterling gained some support from EU Brexit rhetoric, but domestic tensions persisted

 

     

Sterling was hampered by fragile risk conditions and a dip in oil prices.

Concerns surrounding risk appetite and trade policies undermined risk appetite with defensive demand for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc with slight net US dollar losses.

The Canadian dollar was underpinned by relatively hawkish comments from Bank of Canada member Wilkins and some on-going hopes for a NAFTA deal.

Equity markets overall continued to lose ground amid fragile risk conditions also undermining crude while demand for precious metals remained weak.

Cryptocurrencies stabilised, although recoveries were very limited after the plunge seen during Thursday.

There was further choppy Sterling trading ahead of the New York open on Thursday as markets reacted to a further flurry of media reports surrounding Brexit negotiations, although overall ranges were relatively narrow.

Latest reports suggested that many Conservative Party MPs were demanding that Prime Minister May moved towards a Canada-style free-trade deal rather than make further concessions if the EU dismisses the Chequers agreement.

The NIESR estimated that the UK economy remained on track for GDP growth of 0.5% for the third quarter which had little overall market impact. Sterling was hampered to some extent by fragile risk conditions and a dip in oil prices.

GBP/USD found support above 1.2900, although there was further resistance close above 1.2950 while GBP/EUR consolidated near 1.1110 as Brexit tensions maintained choppy trading conditions.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1114

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.2922

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.2476

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 142.89

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.8058

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9664

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.6971

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 19.7633

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.8860

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7766

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1621

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone GDP (Y/Y)

2.20%

2.20%

 
   

13:30 USD

US Non-farm Payrolls(M/M)

187K

157K

 
   

13:30 USD

United States Unemployment Rate (M/M)

3.90%

3.90%

 
   

14:00 USD

FOMC Member Mester Speaks

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

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