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20th July 2018-Prime Minister May expressed confidence that the UK would not end up with a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

 
     

Prime Minister May expressed confidence that the UK would not end up with a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

The dollar index pushed to fresh 2018 highs before dipping sharply to register net losses after US President Trump expressed unease over dollar strength and Fed rate hikes.

Gold recovered from fresh 12-month lows as the dollar lost traction with the Euro and commodity currencies regaining ground.

The offshore Chinese yuan recovered from fresh 12-month lows amid official dollar selling with gains in Shanghai stocks also helping to trigger a recovery in regional equities.

Sterling was again undermined by weaker than expected data with GBP/USD at 10-month lows after the retail sales release with the Euro at 4-month highs.

Headline UK retail sales declined 0.5% for June compared with expectations of a marginal increase and the annual growth rate slowed to 3.0% from an upwardly-revised 4.5% previously. Non-food sales declined and offset growth in food sales, although second-quarter growth as a whole was the strongest since the first quarter of 2015. The weaker than expected data triggered another round of Sterling selling with a decline to fresh 10-month GBP/USD lows below 1.3000.

Prime Minister May expressed confidence that the UK would not end up with a ‘no deal’ Brexit. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier stated that some progress had been made on a withdrawal agreement, although there was still work to do and Sterling was able to secure only a very limited corrective recovery.

GBP/EUR traded at 4-month lows near 1.1160, although there was a GBP/USD correction back above 1.3000 as the dollar retreated sharply. The pair held above 1.3000 on Friday, although continued official warnings over the need to prepare for a possible no-deal Brexit continued to unsettle confidence.

 

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1164

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3020

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3005

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 146.30

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7655

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9260

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7259

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.5995

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6995

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.5862

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1661

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

07:00 EUR

German PPI (Y/Y)

2.90%

2.70%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

5.00B

3.36B

 
   

13:30 CAD

Canadian CPI (Y/Y)

2.50%

2.20%

 
   

13:30 CAD

Bank of Canada Core CPI (Y/Y)

-

1.30%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

19th July 2018-Sterling was undermined by weaker than expected inflation data as well as underlying political uncertainty

 

     

Sterling was undermined by weaker than expected inflation data as well as underlying political uncertainty

The dollar index was unable to reach 2018 high and lost gains later in the New York session as the Euro and commodity currencies recovered some ground.

Sterling was undermined by weaker than expected inflation data as well as underlying political uncertainty with GBP/USD dipping to 10-month lows near 1.3000 before a slight recovery.

Gold recovered slightly from fresh 12-month lows, although underlying demand remained weak.

The offshore Chinese yuan weakened to fresh 12-month lows which helped trigger caution surrounding global equities.

UK consumer prices were unchanged for June with the year-on-year inflation rate also static at 2.4% compared with expectations of an increase to 2.6% as the impact of price discounting offset higher energy prices. The core rate also declined to 1.9% from 2.1% and well below consensus forecasts of 2.2%. Output prices were also slightly weaker than expected with a small increase in the annual rate to 3.1% from 3.0%.

Sterling declined sharply with a GBP/USD slide to 10-month lows below 1.3020 while EUR/GBP advanced to fresh 4-week highs near 0.8930. Futures markets also indicated that the chances of an August Bank of England interest rate increase had declined to below 70%.

Underlying Brexit concerns also continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, although there was a limited correction stronger against the dollar later in the European session amid some reports that the EU could extend the Article 50 timeframe. GBP/USD traded around 1.3055 ahead of Thursday’s latest retail sales data with GBP/EUR just above 1.1200.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1224

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3069

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3061

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.40

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7630

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9279

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7219

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.3587

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6866

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.5725

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1642

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:00 EUR

ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech

-

-

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Retail Sales (Y/Y)

3.80%

3.90%

 
   

13:30 USD

US Initial Jobless Claims

-

214K

 
   

13:30 USD

US Philadelphia Fed. Manufacturing Index

21.5

19.9

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

18th July 2018-Sterling was undermined by fears of government instability

 

     

Sterling was undermined by fears of government instability

The dollar gained ground with underlying support from a confident tone in Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony, although the main feature was a fresh loss of support for low-yield currencies which boosted US demand.

Sterling was undermined by fears of government instability and remained on the defensive even though the government narrowly won a key House of Commons Brexit vote.

Gold retreated sharply to 12-month lows and crude also lost ground which undermined commodity currencies. US equities held firm, but Chinese markets registered losses

Bitcoin spiked to 5-week highs with a daily gain of 10.0%.

UK unemployment remained at 4.2% in the 3 months to May according to latest data while the jobless claimant count increased 7,800. Although employment gains were slightly lower than consensus forecasts, vacancies hit a record high. Average earnings retreated slightly to 2.5% from an upwardly-revised 2.6% with underlying earnings at 2.7% from 2.8%.

Sterling moved higher following the data given evidence that the labour market remained tight, but momentum faded quickly and there was significant selling pressure in early US trading amid expectations that the government would lose a House of Commons Brexit vote.  The UK currency was also hampered by Bank of England Governor Carney’s reiteration that a no Brexit deal would be a material consideration for interest rates. From highs near 1.3270, there were sharp GBP/USD losses as the dollar gained wider traction.

As speculation over a defeat intensified, Sterling weakened further with GBP/USD lows below 1.3100. Although there was a sharp rally after the government avoided the key vote, gains faded quickly amid fears that the underlying position remained chaotic with Prime Minister May still extremely vulnerable. GBP/USD was trapped near 1.3100 on Wednesday ahead of the latest UK inflation data while GBP/EUR fell to 4-month lows around 1.1250 seen on Tuesday.

 

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1255

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3095

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3121

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.98

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7776

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9360

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7317

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.4519

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6993

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6018

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1634

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Average Earning Including Bonus

2.50%

2.40%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Core CPI (Y/Y)

2.20%

2.10%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK PPI Core Output (Y/Y)

2.5

2.4

 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone Core CPI (Y/Y)

1.00%

1.00%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

17th July 2018-Brexit uncertainty remained a key feature as Prime Minister May’s office stated that there would be no second referendum

 

     

Brexit uncertainty remained a key feature as Prime Minister May’s office stated that there would be no second referendum

T
he dollar tended to lose ground amid an easing of trade tensions as European and commodity currencies staged a limited recovery.

Oil prices declined sharply amid fears over increased global supply with Brent sliding to 3-year lows before a slight recovery.

Equity markets drifted lower amid lower energy prices while Chinese uncertainty and trade tensions also hampered market sentiment.

Global bond yields edged higher, but low-yield currencies showed greater resilience after sharp losses last week as the Swiss franc recovered some ground.

Brexit uncertainty remained a key feature as Prime Minister May’s office stated that there would be no second referendum under any circumstances. Sterling was able to resist selling in European trading with support from expectations that the Bank of England could hike rates next month.

Reports suggesting that the government would accept amendments by Eurosceptic Conservative Party MPs to the Customs Bill triggered fresh uncertainty which undermined UK currency gains, especially as amendments could increase EU opposition. Sterling was also hampered in US trading by a sharp decline in oil prices as Brent declined over 3.5% on the day and UK yields also drifted from their highest levels.

The government narrowly won the House of Commons votes, but came close to defeat on one vote and faces further votes on Tuesday, maintaining the high degree of uncertainty amid chaos within the House of Commons.

Sterling was able to resist significant selling and GBP/USD settled just below 1.3250 with GBP/EUR stuck around 1.1300. There was also economic caution ahead of labour-market data with the UK currency likely to be vulnerable if there is a miss on the wages element.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1305

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.1305

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3193

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 148.84

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7824

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9403

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7381

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.5103

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7121

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6657

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1713

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Average Earning Including Bonus

2.50%

2.50%

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Claimant Count Change (M/M)

-

-7.7K

 
   

14:15 USD

US Industrial Production

-

-0.10%

 
   

14:30 USD

US FOMC Member Powell Speech

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

16th July 2018-Sterling regained ground after President Trump shifted to a more positive stance on trade prospects

 

     

Sterling regained ground after President Trump shifted to a more positive stance on trade prospects

The dollar was unable to make further headway on Friday and corrected lower against major currencies as trade fears eased slightly and markets waited for fresh US economic evidence.

Low-yielding currencies and gold also secured a limited corrective recovery after sharp losses earlier in the week, but oil remained on the defensive.

Sterling regained ground after President Trump shifted to a more positive stance on trade prospects in his news conference with Prime Minister May.

Sterling initially remained under pressure on Friday with further Brexit concerns after President Trump’s negative comments.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe stated that weak first-quarter activity was driven by poor weather and the economy is expanding around or a little above the potential growth rate. He also expressed some caution surrounding the rate of wages growth and wanted a little more evidence that the supply side is evolving as expected. The rhetoric suggested that Cunliffe is not yet convinced over an August rate hike. In this context, inflation and wages data will be watched closely this week as they could be decisive for several MPC votes with employment data on Tuesday.

 

President Trump expressed greater optimism surrounding the potential for trade talks with the UK which helped underpin sentiment. There was also an element of short covering with GBP/USD rallying back above 1.3200.

 

CFTC data recorded a fresh increase in Sterling shorts to 10-month highs, maintaining the potential for short covering if sentiment shifts. Visa data recorded that real consumer spending increased 0.7% in the year to June and Sterling made slight gains on Monday as GBP/USD traded near 1.3250 with GBP/EUR little changed around 1.1300 as underlying Brexit concerns persisted.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1317

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3238

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3255

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 148.83

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7813

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9531

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7408

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.5215

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7353

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.7424

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1698

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

10:00 EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance

-

16.7B

 
   

13:30 USD

US Advance Retail Sales (M/M)

0.40%

0.80%

 
   

15:00 USD

US Core Retail Sales (M/M)

0.50%

0.90%

 
   

23:45 NZD

FOMC Member Raphael Bostic speech

1.10%

1.10%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

13th July 2018-Expectations of further Fed interest rate increases provided solid underlying dollar support

 

     

Expectations of further Fed interest rate increases provided solid underlying dollar support


US CPI data was close to expectations and had a limited impact, although expectations of further Fed interest rate increases provided solid underlying dollar support.

Low-yielding currencies remained under pressure with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakening sharply on the day while Brexit concerns again hampered Sterling.

The firm dollar helped maintain a fragile tone surrounding oil prices while gold was unable to make significant headway.

US and Japanese equities secured significant gains, but Chinese stocks edged lower.

Sterling remained under pressure against the dollar on Thursday, although this was primarily a function of US strength rather than domestic weakness as the UK currency edged stronger against the fragile Euro.

The UK government published its White Paper on post-Brexit trading relationships and it confirmed that the UK would maintain a common rulebook for goods, including agricultural products with continued harmonisation avoiding friction at the Northern Ireland border. Parliament would have the ability to set trade policy while there would be different arrangements for services. The UK currency gained some support from hopes of a ‘soft’ Brexit, although domestic opposition remained high.

Overall, GBP/USD consolidated just above 1.3200 with the GBP/EUR finding support on approach to 1.1300. President Trump stated that a US free trade deal with the UK might be impossible under the UK government’s Brexit proposals which had an impact in undermining Sterling support, especially given criticism of Prime Minister May’s stance and GBP/USD dipped to lows near 1.3160 on Friday.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1297

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3177

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3204

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 148.35

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7765

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9460

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7341

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.4763

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6800

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6916

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1660

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

08:15 CHF

Swiss PPI (Y/Y)

-

3.20%

 
   

12:00 GBP

MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 

-

-

 
   

15:00 USD

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

-

-

 
   

17:30 USD

FOMC Member Raphael Bostic speech

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

11th July 2018-US- China trade fears increased…and will football be coming home?

 

     

US- China trade fears increased…and will football be coming home?

Please note that Central FX will be closing today at 16:00 to allow staff to support the national team.

After a relatively calm session, trade fears increased again after Tuesday’s New York close as the US Administration announced potential tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese imports.

Equities retreated sharply and there was fresh yen demand with a decline in bond yields, although sentiment did recover from worst levels.

Sterling was subjected to further choppy trading and industrial data was disappointing, but the currency secured a slight net recovery as immediate political fears eased slightly.

Oil prices dipped lower while gold lost ground as defensive backing again failed to emerge.

May manufacturing production gains were held to 0.4% following a revised 1.3% decline previously and industrial output registered a second successive decline. New monthly GDP data recorded a 0.3% May increase, in line with consensus forecasts, to give a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The weaker than expected industrial data reversed Sterling gains registered at the European open.

EU chief negotiator Barnier stated that he was prepared for a no-deal Brexit. There were slightly more positive comments from Irish Prime Minister Varadkar who stated that we may be entering a period when the EU can be more flexible.

The NIESR estimated second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% and expected a figure of 0.5% for the third quarter. Growth in this region would be likely to keep the Bank of England on track for a gradual increase in interest rates.

Internal political tensions remained extremely high amid further resignations and rumours which contributed to choppy trading with Sterling securing slight net daily gains. GBP/EUR held around 1.1300, although GBP/USD was unable to break above 1.3300 and edged back towards 1.3250 amid continued choppy trading and a fresh dip in risk appetite.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1304

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3259

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3153

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.26

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7896

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9475

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7422

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.8023

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6647

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6253

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1727

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

12:20 USD

OPEC Meeting

-

-

 
   

13:30 USD

US PPI (Y/Y)

3.20%

3.10%

 
   

15:00 CAD

BoC Rate Decision

0.75%

1.25%

 
   

21:30 USD

FOMC member John C. Williams speech

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

10th July 2018-Sterling was subjected to very volatile trading and eventually registered sharp losses

 

     

Sterling was subjected to very volatile trading and eventually registered sharp losses

Sterling was subjected to very volatile trading and eventually registered sharp losses after the resignation of Foreign Secretary Johnson increased fears over a government collapse.

Overall global risk conditions held firm amid an immediate easing of trade fears. Most equity markets made net gains and oil also held firm, although caution surrounding China persisted.

US and Euro-zone bond yields edged higher as defensive demand faded, although ranges were relatively narrow.

The dollar gradually recovered from initial losses as yield spreads provided net currency support and Euro momentum faded.

Sterling dipped lower in early Europe with a GBP/USD dip below 1.3300 amid concerns surrounding renewed political instability. Out-going Brexit Secretary Davis stated that he would not mount a leadership challenge against Prime Minister May which offered some relief and Sterling strengthened into the US open after the appointment of Raab to replace Davis.

The resignation of Foreign Secretary Johnson triggered another sharp Sterling move lower, especially with concerns that May’s position was even more precarious. There was increased speculation over a leadership challenge, especially with rumours that there were enough Conservative Party members to force a confidence vote in May as party leader.

GBP/USD declined sharply to lows around 1.3220 while GBP/EUR held at support around 1.1250. There was a limited recovery as key party officials stated that they did not expect a leadership challenge at this stage.

Speculative, Sterling shorts increased to 10-month highs according to CFTC data, limiting the scope for further selling. Barclaycard reported a 5.1% annual increase in consumer spending, unchanged from May. Political events continued to dominate with GBP/USD below 1.3250 amid concerns that political uncertainty would also damage the economy with GBP/EUR close to 1.1250.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1270

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3230

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3135

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 147.08

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7740

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9344

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7372

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 17.7518

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.6155

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.5406

 
 

EUR/USD 

– 1.1738

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

09:30 GBP

UK Industrial Production (Y/Y)

2.70%

1.80%

 
   

09:30 GBP

GBP Manufacturing Production (M/M)

0.30%

-1.40%

 
   

10:00 EUR

German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)(M/M)

-18.2

-16.1

 
   

13:00 GBP

UK NIESR GDP Estimate

-

0.20%

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

5th July 2018-Market conditions were inevitably subdued on Wednesday given the US Independence Day holiday

 

     

Market conditions were inevitably subdued on Wednesday given the US Independence Day holiday

Market conditions were inevitably subdued on Wednesday given the US Independence Day holiday. Yuan trading was slightly calmer, although Chinese equities continued to lose ground on Thursday which maintained a fragile tone surrounding risk appetite.

The Euro gained ground amid reports that some ECB members were looking to push for an earlier increase in interest rates.

Sterling advanced after a stronger than expected PMI services report as expectations surrounding an August rate hike increased slightly.

Gold retreated from its best levels while oil registered net losses despite Iranian concerns.

The June UK PMI services index strengthened to an 8-month high of 55.1 from 54.0 previously and above consensus forecasts of 54.0. New business strengthened at the fastest pace since May 2017 and order backlogs increased at the fastest pace for close to three years. There was also a strong increase in cost burdens with service charges rose at the fastest pace for 3 months. According to Markit, second-quarter GDP growth is likely to be 0.4%, in line with Bank of England forecasts.

The PMI data should underpin the case for an August interest rate hike, especially given increased cost pressures and UK yields edged higher which supported Sterling. Markets will be on alert for comments by Bank of England Governor Carney on Thursday, although he may be cautious given criticism of his inconsistency surrounding a potential May rate hike.

GBP/USD edged above 1.3200 while GBP/EUR held around 1.1300 before correcting slightly. Political considerations will also be important with the important UK Cabinet meeting on Friday as the government looks to find a unified policy on post-Brexit customs relationships.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1318

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3141

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3094

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 146.18

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7946

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9543

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7389

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 18.1524

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7201

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6093

 
 

EUR/USD 

–  1.1673

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

08:15 CHF

Swiss CPI (Y/Y)

0.90%

1.00%

 
   

11:00 GBP

BoE Gov Carney Speaks

-

-

 
   

12:15 EUR

German Buba President Weidmann speech

-

-

 
   

19:00 USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

-

-

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

4th July 2018-A subdued dollar helped underpin oil prices and emerging-market currencies also rallied.

 

     

A subdued dollar helped underpin oil prices and emerging-market currencies also rallied.

Developments surrounding the Chinese yuan tended to dominate on Tuesday, especially with a lack of developments elsewhere and declining liquidity.

A sharp yuan recovery amid intervention helped limit US currency support as yields moved lower as markets waited for fresh US data releases as underlying trade tensions also persisted.

A subdued dollar helped underpin oil prices and emerging-market currencies also rallied. Gold recovered strongly with a correction after sharp losses during the previous few sessions.

The Swedish krona strengthened after a split Riksbank policy decision.

The June UK PMI construction index strengthened to 53.1 from 52.5 and above consensus forecasts. Overall output hit a 7-month high with further strength in the residential sector while new orders increased at the fastest pace since May 2017. Capacity constraints persisted with lengthening delivery times and input costs strengthened at the fastest pace for 9 months.

Bank of England MPC member Saunders stated that a lot of spare capacity in the UK had been used up and that wage growth is gradually picking up while rates could rise faster than expected by markets. His comments reinforced expectations that he would continue to push for an interest rate hike at the August policy meeting. Sterling gained ground, but GBP/USD was unable to hold above 1.3200 against the dollar while GBP/EUR found support on approach to 1.1300.

Political considerations remained important with the government aiming to set out details of post-Brexit ties at Friday’s crucial Cabinet meeting. Reports suggested fresh proposals would envisage a very ‘soft’ Brexit which provided some Sterling support. BRC data recorded a 0.5% decline in shop prices in the year to June after a 1.1% decline previously which suggests a slight increase in pricing pressure. GBP/USD again edged above 1.3200 resistance in early Europe ahead of Wednesday’s services PMI data.

     
 
       
 

GBP/EUR 

– 1.1315

 
 

GBP/USD

– 1.3203

 
 

GBP/CHF 

– 1.3094

 
 

GBP/JPY 

– 145.75

 
 

GBP/AUD 

– 1.7837

 
 

GBP/NZD 

– 1.9516

 
 

GBPCAD

– 1.7344

 
 

GBP/ZAR 

– 18.0180

 
 

GBP/NOK 

– 10.7259

 
 

GBP/SEK 

– 11.6549

 
 

EUR/USD 

–  1.1668

 
       
  All rates are indicative of interbank rates*  
       
 
 

GBP/EUR

 
 

GBP/USD 

 
 

EUR/USD 

 
       
 
   

08:55 EUR

German PMI Services

52.1

53.9

 
   

08:55 EUR

German PMI Composite

54.2

54.2

 
   

09:00 EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite

54.8

54.8

 
   

09:30 GBP

UK PMI Services

53

54

 
 
   
 
 
*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time.  CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.
 
 
 

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