Fears of a global recession are at an 8 year high.

Reports have come in that in the highest recession probability level since October 2011, just over 34 percent of investors surveyed by Bank of America have said they predict two successive quarters of negative growth are likely to follow in the coming 12 months. More than one in three investors are forecasting a global recession, marking an eight-year high as trade war worries linger over markets across the world.

It was only earlier this month that Donald Trump spooked Wall Street with a twitter post imposing a potential 10 percent tariff on a final $300 Bn worth of Chinese imports.

Further reports from the US have also shown that US inflation has picked up in July as the cost of necessary resources such as Gasoline and Housing rose, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve will hold back from rate cuts in the near future. US Consumer Price Index grew to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent and beat predictions of a 1.7 percent price growth. Analysts say that the rise might eradicate the chances of President Trump obtaining the further interest rate cuts that he desires.

Across the channel in Europe, Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter of the year as weak global demand caused exports from the former powerhouse of Europe to drop off, official data showed yesterday. Output fell 0.1 percent quarter on quarter, showing the economy had grown by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of the year. The export-driven German economy, which is Europe’s largest, has struggled under the weight of trade tensions, weak demand from China, Brexit and a global slowdown.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
07:00 GER Gross Domestic Product -0.1% -0.1%
09:30 GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.0% 0.1%
09:30 GBP Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) 0.1% -0.3%
09:30 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.9% 2.0%
10:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product 0.2% 0.2%
10:00 EUR Industrial Production (Mom)(Jun) -1.4% 0.9%

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.